Will the 'Putin consensus' hold among Russians?

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When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, few predicted that it would become a multiyear war of attrition. Yet tomorrow the conflict will tick into its fifth year, with no real hopes of a peace deal on the immediate horizon.

But what appetite is there in Russia for more war? That's what Peter Rutland and Elizaveta Gaufman, both experts on Russian society, try to answer in their article marking the war's anniversary.

On the surface, support for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his "special operation" in Ukraine remains high. But those figures are built, in part, on coercion and fear. Russians are also being fed a misleading picture of the conflict – it is, in many ways, a "Potemkin village" war, one described to everyday Russians in euphemistic and deceptive terms.

"Heading into the Ukraine war's fifth year, the gulf between the Kremlin version of reality and the lived experience of ordinary Russians remains. It echoes a pattern we have seen before: In the final decade of the Soviet Union, the Kremlin became increasingly out of touch with the views of its people. History will not necessarily repeat itself – but the masters of the Kremlin should be conscious of the parallels," write Rutland and Gaufman.

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Matt Williams

Senior International Editor

Does the nation stand behind him? Vyacheslav Prokofyev/AFP via Getty Images

As war in Ukraine enters a 5th year, will the 'Putin consensus' among Russians hold?

Peter Rutland, Wesleyan University; Elizaveta Gaufman, University of Groningen

Polling in Russia suggests strong support for President Vladimir Putin. Yet below the surface, popular sentiment is more mixed.

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